Polar BearsSea ice
3 days ago
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Susan Crockford
We are just into the 2024 sea ice melt season in the Arctic with no signs of any big, dramatic changes despite claims that2023 was the warmest year on record(since 1850). There is still abundant sea ice habitat for polar bears ahead of the summer months (July-September) when Arctic ice melts back considerably.
Polar bears in Western Hudson Bay are still on the ice despite vast open water levels normally signaling “breakup” has happened: the wind-driven ice is packed tight against the western shore and the bears are still on it.
Arctic sea ice overview
In 2024, sea ice extent at 21 June was estimated at 10.5 mkm2:
Compare the above to 2022 (below), when it wasn’t the “hottest year on record,” and ice extent was 10.4 mkm2:
Despite anearly-summer “heat wave”in Eastern North America there is still abundant sea ice:
As I discussed earlier this month, the enormous area of open water in eastern Hudson Bay wascaused by winds, not ice melt.This has caused the region to have the lowest ice coverage since 1979 for this time of year (see graph below):
The ice is not showing up on the satellite images as thick as it has been in past years, as the chart below shows: usually ice thickness is showing as dark green at this time of year (first year ice >1.2m thick). However, thismaybe an artifact: wind-driven ice is almost always buckled and compressed into a thick mass, so the ice that’s left in Western Hudson Bay may be much thicker than it looks (and therefore, slower to melt over the summer):
But according to University of Alberta researchers, polar bears tagged earlier areallstill on the ice and there have beenno reports from Churchillof polar bears onshore. As far as I am aware, there have been no reports of problem bears ashore in NW Hudson Bay, like Arviat, where bears oftencome ashore earlierthan further south.
Many bears seen earlier in the season were said to have been in good condition (see below, courtesy Andrew Derocher, 24 April 2024), suggesting a successful spring feeding bonanza, it’s likely they are waiting around until the ice literally rotting under their feet forces them ashore.
Barents Sea
Ice is receding from the Svalbard area but there is still plenty of polar bear habitat to the north and aroundFranz Josef Land to the east, where most “Barents Sea” polar bears make maternity dens and spend the summer:
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Milo
June 28, 2024 2:15 pm
So far in this decade, 2021-30, Arctic sea ice extent has averaged higher than last decade, 2011-20. Granted, that’s just over a third of a decade, but the trend is up from 2012 and flat since 2007.
Climate realists who pointed out that Arctic sea ice is cyclic on about a 30-year period from peak to trough have been shown correct.
14
Bob
June 28, 2024 2:20 pm
Nice work Susan.
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Steve Case
June 28, 2024 2:22 pm
Uh so why do the bears need the sea ice? That’s where the seals are. Yeah so why are the seals there. To haul out to have their cubs. Uh and after that, why aren’t they out in the open sea to gobble up the fish? Because Orca is out there to gobble up the seals. So where do the seals go to get away from the Orcas. Under the sea ice if there is any.
Maybe the foregoing is a crock, but it’s the seals that need the sea ice, not the bears. The bears go where the seals are. So if that’s all wrong, please pipe up and say why.
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David Goeden
June 28, 2024 7:30 pm
The Poster Bear for the Climate Scare refuses to cooperate!
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Michael Dack
June 29, 2024 3:26 am
These statements about being the hottest this and the hottest that are becoming so boring. The Polar Bear population has tripled. Must be something wrong.
2
hdhoese
June 29, 2024 6:25 am
I just got this from the Sigma Xi ‘Smart Brief.’ –Development of an 8K SNP [Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs)] chip to assess adaptive diversity and hybridization in polar bears https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12686-024-01359-1#Abs1Open Access in Conservation Genetics Resources
“Using simulations, we demonstrate that the markers have high accuracy and efficiency to detect hybridization and backcrosses between polar bears and grizzly bears. However, empirical analysis of 371 polar bears, 440 grizzly bears, and 8 known hybrids found no novel instances of recent hybridization……The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is a species particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, which has in some areas resulted in declines in individual polar bear fitness and is threatening population viability and persistence at a broader scale (Derocher et al. 2004; Stirling and Derocher 2012; Laidre et al. 2018, 2020)…… the genomic resources we have developed can help inform evolutionarily enlightened management for polar bears, thereby best positioning the species to persist in the face of changing environmental conditions.”
ScienceABC123
June 29, 2024 2:03 pm
Wait long enough and global warming will be blamed for everything, and it’s opposite!
1
Caleb Shaw
June 30, 2024 5:32 am
Thanks, Susan.
Periods of excessive sea-ice, such as the late 1970’s, seems to reduce the populations of both seals and bears. When the ice is thick and jammed up there are simply no (or too few) places for the seals to haul out. Therefore, as is nearly always the case, warmer is better for both seals and bears.
Judging from historical proxies, warmer was better for mankind, which is why past warm periods are referred to as “optimums”. There is evidence the Arctic Sea was ice free in the past, and no evidence that it triggered a “tipping point” and caused the planet to roast. The only reason to fear polar warming is that it will trigger Alarmists to raise taxes and institute insane policies, which truly could end life as we know it.
I have been expecting less ice at the Pole this summer, and am mystified that the extent is the highest in six years and temperatures are cooler than normal.
https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2024/06/29/arctic-sea-ice-the-joy-of-thaw/
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